Labour ahead of National in another poll
Source: https://www.stuff.co.nz/news/110684815/-

2019-02-18 09:34:58

Labour are ahead of National by three points in another poll, while Judith Collins has pulled even with Simon Bridges in the preferred PM stakes.

The TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll released on Monday night had Labour at 45 per cent (up 2), National at 42 per cent (down 4), the Greens at 6 per cent (up 1), and NZ First at 3 per cent (down 1).

In the preferred Prime Ministerial stakes Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is way ahead at 44 per cent while National leader Bridges is hovering at 6 per cent, along with National MP Collins, who is also at 6 per cent.

The poll was taken between February 9 and 13. The last poll from TVNZ/Colmar Brunton was in late November.

The news follows a bombshell poll from rival pollster Reid Research for Newshub released last week, which showed Labour ahead six points and Collins ahead of Bridges in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

These numbers are not as strong for Labour - they are only three points ahead - but will hinder any argument that poll was rogue.

On the latest poll's numbers Labour would win 58 seats in the House, just below the 61-seat governing threshhold. It could govern with the Green Party, who would win 7 seats. NZ First would be out of Parliament on these numbers.

Since the last TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll, the Government has radically downgraded its short-term expectations for KiwiBuild, admitting it only expects to build 300 homes in the first year of the scheme - instead of 1000. Concerns around the relationship with China have also made headlines.

Bridges has had trouble in the preferred prime minister stakes, never topping 12 per cent in either of the public polls. Ardern has hovered in the high 30s and low 40s.

National's deputy leader Paula Bennett said she believed coverage of Newshub's poll contributed to the drop for National in the TVNZ poll.

The Newshub poll was released in the middle of the polling period on February 11.

As polls have got more expensive and media profits have dwindled, public polls have become somewhat rare.

The major two parties generally conduct private tracking polls on a more regular basis.

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